Tropical Wave showing some interest in the Atlantic

We have been monitoring a tropical wave in the ITCZ for the past 24+ hours in Storm Chat. The wave has been exhibiting signs of organization, but currently has lost some of it's convective energy due to the central Tropical Atlantic SST's and the location of the wave still being below 10N. Although, this wave overall has been maintaining some sort of convective burst throughout the day today.



The models in the short term basically agree on a westward motion becoming more west northwest over the next couple of days. The CMC is a bit more WNW and exhibiting more of an influence in a weakening of the ridge. Where the GFS now is not focusing on the weakness or even a split in the Atlantic Ridge occurring.
The NHC has acknowledged the wave embedded in the ITCZ, and has given it a low chance of significant development.
But the issue is, being this wave has some potential for further organization and a slight chance of development over the coming days if it doesn't encounter any negative influences such as shear.
In the long term, the GFS has the wave approaching the Southeastern Bahamas early next week. Again, being this is a long term probability, this can change.
We will have to monitor this wave daily, and watch the forecast models to see if they begin to agree on either development and/or track.
At least at this point, long term, this may mean more tropical moisture for Florida next week.
Make sure we watch the local weather outlets concerning this tropical wave in the Atlantic.

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